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The challenge was architectural and logisticalUnder penalty it will compel such listed company to provide critical market informationAttention also sensitivity indicated in ISOObviously some have difficulty understanding he toldThe commune of Ixelles and its inhabitants 77As the companies to pay dividends to each otherSince 2006 he receives a pension hat of 583But a page is turned on the twodigit growthDo not search for his personal collectionIt devoted its work to the ethical responsibility of companiesThe Council of Ministers will, tomorrow, adopt two Bills revitalization plan announced on December 4 by Nicolas Sarkozy at Douai (Northern), and which will be discussed in Parliament from January 6. EUR 26 billion plan should bring 0.6 point of gross domestic product in the event the next year, has evaluated the Ministry of the economy, however, who has not identified its growth forecast 2009 (fixed early November between 0.2 and 0.5), the plan from that offset the worsening of the crisis.
If they agree on the order of magnitude, limited the impact of the stimulus package, they have, for the most part, integrated into their forecasts, economists continue to lower their expectations for growth in the next year. According to the "Consensus Forecasts" of December, published this week and which identifies the prognostications of economic forecasters, the forecast for 2009 20 is thus again reduced by half a percentage point of GDP from November. It is now, on average, 0.6, bringing the year 2009 for the two years of recession recorded in France since the second World War: 1975 ( 1) and 1993 ( 0.9). Only two institutes still build on positive growth (beeps and Gama, with, respectively, 0.4 and 0.2), others providing, at best, an activity (Natixis) stability, and, at worst, a decline in GDP exceeding 1. The forecasters of us banks are the most pessimistic: Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Bank of America forecast that the activity of 1.2 to 1.3.
While these forecasts are only a few days, some institutes review still falling, the latest short-term information (trade, industrial production...) leaving augurer a strong decline of GDP at the end of this year, which will come to weigh on the growth in 2009, calculated annual average. "The essence of the 2009 figure is played in the last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, but we anticipate a decline in quarterly GDP by 0.8 and 0.7. "The acquis of growth will be heavily negative at end of March and it will be difficult to go up the slope," explains Denis Ferrand, Director General of COE-Rexecode. While the Institute of conjuncture was on a decline of 0.8 next year, he has presented to its member companies an estimate showing a decline of 1.1. "The recovery plan can play as early as January, but only on cash businesses, which will avoid failures but will support growth in the medium term," he continued. Additional investments, the premium case-sensitive in the automobile or the active solidarity will also later play.
A "crisis shock."
Natixis, still relies on stable growth next year, also plans to correct his prediction of a half percentage point. "The low point in the third quarter will be largely exceeded in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009", also anticipates Maxime Lemerle, responsible for economic studies of Euler Hermes SFAC, which yesterday presented its 2009 Outlook. The credit insurer assesses the impact of the stimulus package between 0.4 and 0.5 next year, but it may be that a "crisis damper": the GDP is forecast to decrease by 0.5, in its forecast. These scenarios, quite dark, economists remain yet in a recession "classic". Deflation, or an exchange rate shock would enter a new and deeper phase of the crisis the world economy.
