It is too early to assess its seriousness

Four days of the presidential election in the United States, the games were already made. In the eyes of our four guests, all specialists in values American, Obama was the host of the White House (read the investigation page 13). But whatever the future winner, their eyes were already further. As one of the interveners, the amounts of currency that were injected to save banks beyond understanding. "In a month, the balance sheet of the EDF has increased in a century!", he explained. At the time, it may no longer remain little known as teams to hold the reins of the Federal State: at just over $ 300 billion (EUR 234 billion). What is somewhat on the promise that each candidate has pledged to honor. Therefore, the crisis is not over. It will be able to move away from the financial sphere, it will return to the field of industry. It may give the impression of blur in the short term, it will reappear more later, in a structural manner. Because, beyond the "sub-prime", what is at stake, it is a change in society. From the beginning of the 1980s, America had confused felt that the 21st century would not be his. She tried to delay the deadline by inventing the financialisation of the economy. The mechanism he explodes now figure. Is it to say that Wall Street will need to go through the ranks to become an anonymous regional award Not sure. The US rating is teeming with values issued by globalized groups that can take advantage of global growth, where it it, even if it is now in Asia. In addition, to date, on the planet, there is no plethora of campus to compete in innovations with Silicon Valley. As long as creativity is present in its territory, America will have a say. But in the short term, the country is not immune to convulsions. They will do so as long as the excesses of the use of leverage have not been purged. This was the message sent by our four managers. It was Hubert Goyé, responsible for International shares in BNP Paribas AM, Christophe Foliot, Deputy Director of the management shares international America yield, Edram, Bernard Delattre, Deputy Director of Prigest, and François Mouté, specialist Manager of America at ABN AMRO.

A Word first of all, on the crisis. How the live you, how analyze it you

Hubert Goyé. It is too early to assess its seriousness. Whenever we have had crises, even during the invasion of the Kuwait or the collapse of the technology bubble, we always thought that it was the most serious. But, a posteriori, on a chart in the long term, even if we always see the end of the technology bubble, we see more the 1987 crash.

That said, I think that we see that the beginning of the current crisis. The most worrying is the deterioration of the employment situation and the problem of funding which has worsened in recent weeks. It is to solve for the banks, but he persists for businesses, especially in the automotive sector. The companies will adjust their first position of cost, which is employment. But the US economy is largely dependent on consumption, this can easily have a strong impact.

Christophe Foliot. Beyond the macroeconomic slowdown, the crisis was amplified by a loss of confidence of investors in the financial system, which has added many points lower to indices. This distrust of the operators and their maximum risk aversion probably find their source in the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers.

Monetary policy, recent declines in rates have relatively little effect. What will count, what stimulus plans that will follow. After the elections in November, we expect consumption stimulus and large infrastructure projects in the United States.

Bernard Delattre. We, at Prigest, we find this crisis appalling, because we we consider as collateral for the stock market slump. The real economy is not what we are experiencing. This crisis will still have a positive impact: it will allow to put things in perspective. The various economic and financial actors will renovate their procedures and to remember that the stock market is used to finance the development of the enterprises. For now, we face a seller uninterrupted stream. It is because we believe the outcome of all speculative positions on certain sectors. We arrive at aberrant valuations for many titles. But we believe that we will have a substantial rebound before the end of the year on a part of the rating.

Then Appropriate to consider in the longer term. Will the American consumer evolve its consumption patterns in the coming years I'm struggling to think that there is a profound evolution, because an American who consumes frantically since

twenty-five years will be hard to change. Should therefore find new levers to boost consumption in the United States, or force the American to save and get the country out of debt.

François Mouté. I have the impression that there is a blur: beyond the economic crisis, we are facing a structural crisis. A period of over-indebtedness and drift of the system began in 1981 with Mr. Reagan, it now comes to an end. We agree that the end of the year will see the judgment of the winding-up absurd, so there will be a rebound. But I do not think that the system can continue to function as before. It is the end of the "hedge funds" with 100: 1 leverage effects. Therefore any part of asset purchase capacity disappears. Inevitably, the price of assets will no longer be the same.

There is therefore a reconstruction work to carry out. The American consumer saving rates developed twenty to thirty years to go from a normal rate to a rate 0; the consumer is not able to resume a traditional consumption cycle. It is this structural aspect that strikes me, and that we cannot evacuate.

For you, this is the end of an era and the beginning of another

François Mouté. Yes. This crisis is the end of the last burst of the Western world who loses world leadership. The West has stood for 20 years by a debt overhang. Now we are in a phase of acceleration of history and this phenomenon is far more important than that of the "subprime". The difference with previous crises, is that today ' today China and the India present themselves as an alternative to the Western world. However, each other, we tend to place our assets there where there is growth. In this case, is not in the Western world.

Hubert Goyé. I will provide a flat. This growth is due to a large population which is a very low living standards. However, there is still no innovation in these countries; any innovation comes from the United States. Even the Japan simply miniaturize what was invented elsewhere.

Emerging and Middle Eastern countries have simply exploited natural resources to advance their standard of living. We can imagine that this will change to term with the education of these populations. But the area in which the U.S. market continues to have an overwhelming advantage is technological innovation. This is not likely to change, even if US firms sometimes appeal to foreign human resources.

François Mouté. Indeed, we see that a majority of doctoral students in the United States are foreign. However, whereas previously they remained in the United States after their graduation, they now tend to return to their country of origin. Therefore, the redeployment of United States jurisdiction is underway; This phenomenon is accentuated by the fact that it is less expensive to operate laboratories in these countries. It is therefore crucial to America that it remains a pole of attraction for all graduates.

Do you think that Wall Street courses incorporate these changes in American society

Christophe Foliot. Of beautiful large American companies have completely collapsed in the stock market, while they are global and depend on few of the American consumer. Now, less than 20 of the US stock market is composed of consumer values, while the US economy relies to 70 on consumption. Microsoft and Philip Morris will continue to grow, even in a sluggish global growth scenario.

This could explain the paradox that the anticipation of an economic recession results in a rebound of the stock market

Hubert Goyé. Values cyclic underperform very often during recessions. Profits fall, but the market anticipates a return to growth.

Bernard Delattre. To give you a specific example, I remember two companies in the oil sector listed in the 1970s. Between 1970 and 1973, they increased by an average of 250; in 1974, they have lost 75 of their value; then, between 1975 and 1981, one took 1,600 and the other took 2.200 in a bearish market.

François Mouté. Finally, we all, we buy American businesses that benefit from what happens in the rest of the world, particularly in Asia. Indeed, it is in those countries that will leave more strong growth despite the hazards that we see today. Therefore, a company widely exposed to these countries will emerge better than a business dependent on American consumption.

Christophe Foliot. We manage décotées values or "value" and we take quantity of cyclical companies related to the American economy, dealing at very attractive levels of valuation, it say under their revalued net assets. These values represent approximately 40 of our portfolio. The US economy being came first into recession, these values have already collapsed. But they could also be the first to rebound. They have potentials of very significant increases.