But a page is turned on the twodigit growth

In June, it will be twenty years that the Chinese Communist Government tanks crushed student on Tiananmen Square. Since then, over two decades, distressed authorities led a race exhausted itself in economic expansion to escape the social revolt. Below the 8 growth, said to be, it would be difficult to absorb the masses of the miserable bottom of campaigns. The Government had to constantly support the economic accelerator to avoid troubles, even risking permanent overheating.

The crisis forced China to enter into a phase of reduced speed. In the first quarter, on an annual basis, China's growth was 6.1, after 6.8 in the fourth quarter of 2008. While different signals show that the economy starts a little. In March, car sales have reached a record, making the country the first automobile in the world market. In March still, industrial production has rebounded by 8. Investments grew by 28 in the first quarter, drawn by public expenditure of EUR 460 billion recovery plan.

But a page is turned on the two-digit growth. The economy is "healthier than expected", said Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, confessing as the result of the first quarter gives no doubt the level of the time to come. IMF and World Bank also provide 6.5 this year.

The two pillars of China's growth are very unnerved. Real estate, first, with champignonesques structures and prices that have tripled since 2003. Loan facilities granted by the Government give a little oxygen to the market, but they will not be able to change the trend to a sharp decline in prices. These should be divided by two, according to Cao Jianhai, Professor at the Academy of social sciences, cited by the "Financial Times" (April 14), which will seriously reduce the appetite for construction. Export, then, that would represent 40 of GDP. A debate exists on the importance of this figure and the dependence of China's growth to the good health of the G3 (US, Europe, Japan). According to UBS, only 8 of employees work for the industrial export. According to other calculations taking into account the induced effects, a decrease of 10 of the exports would lead to a fall of 2.5 points of growth. But, in any event, China sees opportunities road narrowed.

The stimulus plan specifically to substitute domestic demand that external has become poor. The plan is ambitious and, in proportion, as powerful as that decided by Barack Obama (4.4 of GDP, according to the IMF). But, as usual in China, Beijing must count with the delays of transmission of orders to local authorities. The maintenance of a surplus of external accounts shows that the goal is not achieved, overall Chinese domestic consumption is still too modest.

Conditions, the bet is to change model for less dependence on the export. But this change occurs slowly: the household savings rate remains too high, demonstrating a failure of the authorities to reassure them about the future. The rate of investment of private firms remains too low, illuminating an anomie of average profit rates. Therefore, China should be very difficult to go up its growth to 8.

What result The province of Guangdong, South-East of the country, has 19 million immigrants from the hinterland. During the Chinese New Year holidays in January, more than half (10 million) are distributed among them. But after 9.5 million returned. "Home", is more out there on the poor land of parents but here in the light of the cities. Approximately 450,000 have not found their jobs to return because of the crisis. But they are not revolted. The Chinese will not bring down the regime but have employment, wages, a car, leisure activities, to marry. In short, eat. The spectrum of Tiananmen returns to help the Government to amend the plan for growth: the social demands are what it is best for him.